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Estimating tournament outcomes

I’m considering the number of knockout matches since 1986 and how they might vary. Instead of focusing on precise numbers, I think I could give approximate ranges and examples, like Spain's early loss in 2010 but dominating on expected goals, or Germany crushing Brazil in 2014. Also, Croatia's three penalties in 2018 and Morocco upsetting Spain and Portugal in 2022 show how luck plays a role.

The concept here is that in cup competitions, skill drives outcomes more than we think, with structural factors amplifying variance.Calculating upset probabilities

I need to provide some numbers on knockout upsets. Even solid favorites with a 60% chance lose 40% of the time, which compounds through the elimination rounds, decreasing championship odds. For instance, if a top team has a 65% chance per match, their chance of winning four knockout matches is 0.65^4, which equals about 0.18 when including group matches.

There’s also the concept of "xG luck" illustrating how finishing variance impacts results. To mitigate risks, teams should focus on penalties practice, set-piece strategies, and effective risk management.Assessing luck in the World Cup

Luck isn't overestimated or ignored; the World Cup format amplifies chance, yet long-term outcomes are driven by skill.

• The knockout format has a short duration and small sample size: 7 games with single elimination leads to a high variance and noise from individual goals.

• Elo/FIFA rankings strongly correlate with outcomes; most champions come from the top 10, and upsets are more common in early rounds.

• Scoring statistics show that about 25%-33% of matches go to extra time, with half of those decided by penalties.

• External factors like refereeing, injuries, and climate can also impact results, but these can be mitigated with deep rosters and rotation strategies.

• If a strong team has a 70% win probability, winning four consecutive knockout matches results in only a 24% chance, showing that it's not just luck but the small number of trials.

• Teams can control margins through set pieces, game management, and smart penalty strategies to reduce variance.

  

In conclusion, while luck plays a role, it's often exaggerated in popular narratives. The World Cup represents a competition of skill with high variability. If the user wants, I could analyze historical data on rankings and outcomes.